The National Institute of Statistics (NIS) significantly revised the data on the negative contribution of investments (gross fixed capital formation) to GDP growth in 2024, from -0.4% to -0.9%. Overall, economic growth was revised down by 0.1 percentage points, to 0.8% of GDP. Investments were not solely responsible for the severe negative impact on economic growth: industry, agriculture, and construction also dragging it down; only trade had a positive effect, fueled by a spectacular increase in consumer loans, money spent on imports.

However, what remains surprising is the negative contribution of investments which decreased from minus 0.4% to minus 0.9%, given that the Budget had viewed investments as the main growth engine.

In terms of GDP use, changes in the contribution to GDP growth in 2024, between the two estimates, were record[mepr-show rules=”1611″ unauth=”both”]ed by: () Gross fixed capital formation, from -0.4% to -0.9%, as a result of the decrease in its volume by 1.6 percentage points from 98.3% to 96.7%, according to the NIS press release.

Net investments in the national economy increased last year, in current prices, to RON 194 billion, from RON 189 billion in 2023, but decreased by 4.9% in volume, according to other data recently released by the NIS.

Last year, the share of private investment out of the total investment fell to 38% from 46% in 2023. According to the latest Eurostat data, the share of public investment as a percentage of GDP has increased significantly in Romania as a result of the use of European funds.

For 2025, but also in the medium term, economic growth seems to depend mainly on the evolution of investments, in the context of limited domestic and external consumption, according to the latest forecast by NCSP, envisaging a very optimistic advance of 2.5% of GDP this year.

Consequently, gross fixed capital formation, with an average annual rate of 5% and an investment rate that will reach 28.7% in 2028, will represent the main factor of economic growth. Private consumption will advance at an average annual rate similar to that of gross domestic product (2.7%), a NCSP analysis shows.

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